MARKET NEWS

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese banks raised new mortgage costs for the first time in three years, new data from a research firm shows, as narrowing margins are dragged down by a persistent property slump and slowdown in the world’s No. 2 economy. 

The average mortgage rate for buyers’ first homes in 42 big cities inched up to 3.08% in November from a record low of 3.05% in the previous month, the first increase since October 2021, according to data from Singapore-based firm Data Motion International Trading Pte.

That change was surprising since the housing market remains mired in a decline that began three years ago, and has rippled through the economy. Property prices are still falling despite recent signs of an improvement in sales following a stimulus push that began in late September.   

Chinese banks battling a record low net interest margin — a key measure of profitability — are under pressure to boost their books, which have become a constraint on the central bank’s ability to further bring down interest rates. Deeper cuts forecast next year are set to intensify the challenge for lenders to find ways to deal with declining loan rates. 

Home sales will likely remain challenging in the near future, making the rate increase unjustified from a market perspective, according to Shen Meng, a director at Beijing-based boutique investment bank Chanson & Co.

“It’s likely that regulators guided the banks to raise mortgage rates on new loans in a concerted move, so as to create enough buffer for further and bigger rate reductions next year,” said Shen. “It’ll hit housing demand for sure, but not necessarily nip the early recovery in the bud.”

China in late September moved to lower costs on as much as $5.3 trillion in outstanding mortgages for homeowners to bolster the property market. Central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said at the time the measures would result in an average 50 basis point cut for borrowers and reduce their annual interest expenses by about 150 billion yuan ($20.6 billion). 

Price War

Some 17 out of the 42 cities with available data lifted first-home mortgage rates in November, according to figures from Data Motion, which surveys banks’ local branches across Chinese cities. Wuhan, Changsha and Wenzhou cities recorded the biggest increases of 20 basis points. 

The uptick trickled down from guidance given by local branches of a supervisory body overseen by the People’s Bank of China, known as the interest rate self-disciplinary mechanism, according to a report by Caixin, citing two unnamed bank executives. 

That instruction was intended to ease a “price war” among banks that’s undermined profitability as they race to slash mortgage rates to draw clients, the report said, citing the sources.  

The PBOC didn’t reply to a fax requesting comment.

Chinese banks have suffered a chronic pile-up in bad loans and margin erosion in recent years, as Beijing relied on them to funnel cheap lending to bolster the world’s second largest economy. 

Combined profits at commercial lenders edged up just 0.5% in the first three quarters to 1.9 trillion yuan, official data showed. Total non-performing loans jumped to a record 3.4 trillion yuan at end-September, while net interest margin further narrowed to 1.53%, the lowest ever and well below a 1.8% threshold regarded as necessary to maintain reasonable profitability.

To address lenders’ profit pressure, the central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio in recent years to free up low-cost money. Banks have also trimmed deposit rates to reduce funding costs, and will likely keep doing so in the coming year. 

Authorities also vowed to beef up capital positions at the biggest state-owned lenders using funding from the sale of special sovereign bonds. 

--With assistance from Emma Dong, Jinshan Hong and Monica Si.