MARCH 12, 2024

By Yusuf Akinpelu

BBC News, Lagos

Nigeria is once more being rocked by mass abductions.

Twice in one week, gangs of motorcycle-riding armed men, operating from forests in two different places in the north of the country, kidnapped hundreds of people.

First on Wednesday we got news from a remote town in Borno state in the north-east that suspected militant Islamists had seized women and children from a displaced persons camp who were searching for firewood. It took several days for the news to emerge because the local mobile phone masts had been destroyed.

Then the following day, more than 280 children, aged between eight and 15, and some teachers, were taken away by gunmen from a school hundreds of miles away in the north-western state of Kaduna into a nearby forest.

There are reports locally that this attack was carried out by militants from the al-Qaeda-linked Ansaru group.

In recent months, there had been a lull in this type of mass kidnapping that had plagued Nigeria since the notorious abduction of nearly 300 girls from a school in Chibok in April 2014 which captured international headlines.

But now, it's déjà vu as the 10th anniversary of that tragedy looms.

The mass abduction in Kaduna is the biggest from a school since 2021.

So why is there a resurgence of this kidnapping that is endangering the lives of the most vulnerable Nigerians?

It is hard to discern a pattern from the coincidental timing of two apparently unconnected incidents, but it is a reminder that the threat has not gone away.

The fact that they happened just days before the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan may be significant.

Those who have been kidnapped and freed in the past have talked about being forced to do cooking and other menial jobs in the forest camps.

But in general, kidnap-for-ransom in Nigeria is a low-risk, high-reward business. Those abducted are usually freed after money is handed over, and the perpetrators are rarely arrested.

This is despite the fact that paying a ransom to free someone has been made illegal.

In all, more than 4,700 people have been kidnapped since President Bola Tinubu came into power last May, risk consultants SBM Intelligence have said.

Kidnapping has become a lucrative venture for people driven by economic desperation to raise funds.

Apart from ransoms of money, gangs have in the past demanded foodstuffs, motorcycles and even petrol in exchange for the release of hostages.

"Nigeria's poor economy creates the conditions for kidnapping. Over the past year, the government has not been able to fix its foreign exchange problem," William Linder, a retired CIA officer and head of 14 North, an Africa-focused risk advisory, told the BBC.

"Food prices have skyrocketed, especially over the past six months. The perception of corruption continues."

Alex Vines, director of the Africa programme at the Chatham House think-tank agrees.

He said that the recent attacks can be tied to Nigeria's underperforming economy and the inability of the forces to disrupt the kidnapping gangs' activities.

Rising food costs have been worsened by the farmers not being able to access their fields to grow food as they fear being attacked or kidnapped.

"In large swathes of these areas, armed gangs have supplanted both the government and traditional rulers as the de facto authority," Dr Vines explained.

The gangs often extort money from people, but the fact that they are unable to farm means there are fewer funds available, which may explain the gangs turning to kidnapping.

Likewise, the shrinking of the Lake Chad basin and the spreading of the Sahara Desert southward has led to the disappearance of arable farmland and a scarcity of water.

"These pressures only add to the woes of many, especially in the north. This pushes people to seek alternative means of income. Unfortunately, kidnapping for ransom is one," Mr Linder said.

The gangs are aided by the fact that Nigeria's borders are porous and insecure. Islamist violence in the wider region has added to the insecurity.

The vast forest reserves in the border regions have been turned into operational bases for the criminals.

"Nigeria needs to work with its neighbours," said Bulama Bukarti, a senior conflict analyst at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

"Without transnational co-operation especially with Niger, Cameroon, Chad, including in the north-western part of Nigeria's border, these incidents will continue to repeat themselves."

But that alone would not help Nigeria defeat the gangs, Mr Bukarti added. The authorities also need to be willing to bring perpetrators to justice.

"We have never seen a gang leader arrested and prosecuted. It's lucrative. More people will join, and impunity will increase," he said.

MARCH 12, 2024

Nigeria’s used vehicle imports increased by 226.46 per cent to N1,063 trillion in 2023 compared to N325.05 billion recorded in 2022.

The National Bureau of Statistics disclosed this in its combined trade data for 2023.

An analysis of the data showed that between 2022 and 2023, used vehicle imports increased by N736 billion.

In the first quarter, Nigeria’s total used vehicle imports stood at N72.32 billion, which decreased to N69.48 billion in the year under review.

However, in the second quarter of 2023, there was a hike in vehicle exports from N96.76 billion recorded in 2022 to N733.91 billion.

In the third quarter of 2023, this figure dropped to N138.50 billion, while the corresponding quarter of 2022 stood at N90.77 billion.

For the last quarter of 2023, Nigeria imported used vehicles valued at N121.82 billion. This was almost double the value of vehicle imports recorded in 2022 at N65.19 billion.

DAILY POST reported that the total foreign trade in 2023, including imports and exports, stood at N69.81 trillion.

MARCH 13, 2024

By Kate Whannel

Failed asylum seekers are to be offered up to £3,000 to move to Rwanda under a new voluntary scheme.

The plan, first reported by The Times, is understood to be a variation of an existing voluntary returns scheme, where failed asylum seekers receive cash to return to their home country.

It will be open to anyone whose asylum claim has been rejected by the UK.

In particular it is aimed at those who cannot return to their home countries.

Business minister Kevin Hollinrake said payments for those agreeing to relocate to Rwanda would amount to a "good use of public money".

"It costs a lot more money than that to keep people in this country who are out here without merit," he told Times Radio.

"It is about saying to people 'If you come here, you can't stay here if you come here illegally,' he added.

"That is the point. So I don't think anybody would try and come here just to get £3,000 to go to Rwanda."

The government is already trying to implement a separate scheme under which people deemed to have arrived illegally in the UK would be sent to Rwanda.

That plan had been blocked by the courts, which raised concerns about Rwanda's safety.

In order to overcome those objections, the government is currently trying to pass its Safety of Rwanda Bill, which would deem the East African country to be a safe place.

The BBC has been told that, unlike that scheme, this new arrangement would be voluntary and therefore not dependent on the bill being approved by Parliament.

No set figure

A Home Office spokesman said voluntary returns were "an important part of our efforts to tackle illegal migration".

"We are exploring voluntary relocations for those who have no right to be here to Rwanda, who stand ready to accept people who wish to rebuild their lives and cannot stay in the UK," they added.

Failed asylum seekers who choose to be relocated would be allowed to legally work in the country, unlike in the UK. They would also get additional support upon arrival in Rwanda.

The scheme will also be opened up to other people with no right to remain in the UK, and foreign criminals.

There is no date for when the first people would be relocated under the scheme, and no set figure on the number of people who may choose to take part in it.

'No chance'

According to official statistics, 19,253 people were voluntarily removed from the UK last year. Of these, 3,319 received a "reintegration package" or flights paid by the Home Office - the highest number since 2010.

The Home Office says payments under the current scheme "can pay for" temporary accommodation in the destination country, or education costs, or the cost of setting up a business.

Responding to the government's latest announcement, Labour's shadow immigration minister Stephen Kinnock said: "Even government ministers are finally recognising that their Rwanda scheme has no chance of succeeding, so they're resorting to paying people to go there instead."

He said Rwanda had "very limited capacity" for accepting people and that the government should "make clear how many people they expect to send on this basis, and what the cost will be.

"There have been so many confused briefings around the Rwanda policy that the public will be forgiven for treating this latest wheeze with a degree of scepticism."

MARCH 13, 2024

By Justice Okamgba

Stakeholders have predicted that airfares for domestic travel would remain because of operators’ rising operating costs.

In separate chats with The PUNCH, they pointed out that airline operators were contending with various economic factors, such as increasing fuel costs and operational expenses.

The General Secretary of Aviation Roundtable, Olumide Ohunayo, told The PUNCH that although there had been a decline in air travel lately, airlines have not lowered ticket prices.

He explained that fares were determined by market dynamics, influenced by factors such as inflation, the naira-to-dollar exchange rate, and operational costs.

He said, “There has been a decline in the number of passengers, but this has not prompted airlines to reduce air ticket prices. With the devaluation of the naira and other cost components, along with inflationary trends, it is very difficult for the airlines.

 “What they will do is cut down their frequencies until the market booms again. People would rather ship cargo or send money than travel due to the cost. Corporate travel has decreased, while most operators are declaring losses.”

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the costs of air travel increased by 11.01 per cent in November compared to the same period of the previous year.

In February, former President of the National Association of Aircraft Pilots and Engineers, Sheri Kyari, warned that aviation fuel prices would remain high as long as the product was imported due to the exchange rate.

Currently, aviation fuel, also known as Jet fuel, is selling for over N1,200 per litre in Lagos, compared to N250 in the same period last year.

In 2022, the aviation sector reportedly incurred $192bn operating costs, as indicated in a report by Phillips Consulting Limited.

The Chief Executive Officer of Centurion Security Limited, Captain John Ojikutu, noted that aviation fuel accounted for approximately 60 per cent of airlines’ operational costs.

Ojikutu told The PUNCH that with the current price of aviation fuel, air tickets for local travel would cost as much as N140,000.

He recommended the resumption of local manufacturing of aviation fuel to alleviate the impact its scarcity was having on both operators and passengers.

MARCH 18, 2024

The Labour Party, LP, 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, on Monday lamented that about 7,000 Nigerians have been kidnapped in the past one year with several cases of killings and clashes recorded across the country.

This was as he described Nigeria as one of the hungriest nations and most difficult countries to live in the North.

Posting on X, Obi called on the Federal Government to take urgent steps towards improving the situation in the country.

“In the past 1 year, about 7000 Nigerians have been kidnapped, with about 700 kidnapped in the last 3 weeks, notwithstanding the violent crimes and killings that occur in every part of the nation, which must have included us in one of the world’s riskiest countries to live in.

“A report by the globally respected publication, Financial Times, on March 12, 2024, described Nigeria’s kidnapping racket as a sign of a failed state. With all of these happening in our nation, how then can we attract foreign investors, & retain the confidence of local investors?

“We have become one of the hungriest nations in the world and one of the most difficult nations in the world to live in, with food prices constantly going out of the reach of most Nigerians. Power supply is abysmally poor and Nigerians are now mostly in total darkness,as over 60% are without power supply. Even those in perceived privileged areas now go for days without power supply.

“A 2022 Energy Progress Report designated Nigeria as the country with the largest number of people lacking access to electricity with 92 million of its over 200 million population living without electricity. About 80 percent of our primary healthcare centres are not functional. The cost of medical treatments and medicines have gone beyond the reach of most Nigerians.

“We now hold the enviable position of having the highest number of out of school children, with about 20 million out-of-school children. We need to take our children off the streets and give them access to basic education.

“I, therefore, urge our executive and legislative arms to consider the many challenges facing our nation and re-allocate resources to these very critical areas. This is the time for complete sacrifice. A New Nigeria is still very POssible,” he wrote.

MARCH 18, 2024

By Nimesh Vora

MUMBAI, March 18 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was trading little changed on Monday, helped by persistent inflows and pegged back by weak Asian currencies and dollar buying by public sector banks.

The rupee was at 82.8850 to the U.S. dollar at 11:04 a.m. IST compared with 82.8775 in the previous session. The local currency's intraday high is 82.83.
Inflows will "broadly support" the rupee until "this month is over", a foreign exchange trader said.

"On the other side, you have the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) and the dollar that is on the up move."
The RBI has been intervening to limit the rupee's decline in the face of dollar inflows, buying the greenback via public sector banks.

The banks "are again" on the bid on the dollar/rupee, though "not sure if it is for the RBI or importers", said an FX salesperson at a private bank.
Other Asian currencies were mostly weaker, awaiting two key outcomes this week. The Bank of Japan policy decision is due on Tuesday and the U.S. Federal Reserve review would be a day later.

The BOJ is expected to exit its negative interest rate policy, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Saturday. The odds of an exit versus no change are nearly 50:50.
The Fed, meanwhile, is nearly certain to make no changes to the policy rate and the main focus will the interest rate and inflation projections.
The U.S. central bank's dot plot in December indicated three rate cuts in 2024, which investor are debating whether the latest will show only two.

"Our assessment is that inflation is still in line with the Fed's projections and we see no compelling reason at this stage to alter current guidance," ANZ Bank said in a note. "However, the risk of an adjustment to the dot plot needs to be highlighted." 

Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Sohini Goswami

MARCH 18, 2024

     Six countries now share the title of the world's most powerful passports, according to the latest Henley Passport Index, with the Nigerian passport ranked 98th in the world. Nigeria fell from the 97th spot it occupied in 2023. The passports of several of Nigeria’s West African neighbours, such as Ghana (76th), Benin (81st), Togo (85th),… 

Six countries now share the title of the world’s most powerful passports, according to the latest Henley Passport Index, with the Nigerian passport ranked 98th in the world.

Nigeria fell from the 97th spot it occupied in 2023. The passports of several of Nigeria’s West African neighbours, such as Ghana (76th), Benin (81st),  Togo (85th), Guinea (85th), Senegal (86th), Niger (87th), Guinea Bissau (88th), and Liberia (93rd), have better rankings. The best ranking for the country was 62nd position achieved in 2006. Its worst ranking in recent decades was the 103rd spot it scored in 2021.

Citizens of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Singapore, and Spain can now travel to a record-breaking 194 destinations around the world without a prior visa. The Henley Passport Index, a well-respected ranking based on exclusive data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), analyses how many destinations a passport holder can access visa-free.  

Following the leading six are South Korea, Finland, Sweden, and the Netherlands, which are tied for second place with visa-free access to 193 destinations. The United Kingdom, Austria, Denmark, Ireland, and Luxembourg sit in third place, with their citizens able to visit 192 countries visa-free.

Australia sits in fifth place with access to 190 destinations, followed by Canada, Czechia, Poland and the United States, which share sixth place with visa-free entry to 189 countries.</p>

The ranking also sheds light on countries with limited visa-free travel options. India finds itself in 82nd place, with access to only 62 destinations.

Several African nations, including Gabon, Sao Tome and Principe, Tajikistan, Burkina Faso, Madagascar, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea, and Mauritania, all fall within the bottom rungs of the index, with visa-free access to 61 or 60 destinations.

Nigeria falls at 98th with access to 45 destinations, while Syria and Afghanistan rank even lower at 108th and 109th, respectively, with visa-free access to just 29 and 28 destinations, respectively.

MARCH 19, 2024

Airfares across local destinations in Nigeria have continued to rise, leading to a drastic drop in the influx of passengers arriving and departing from airport terminals across Nigeria.

A recent visit by BusinessDay to the three busiest terminals in Nigeria — Murtala Muhammed Airport, Lagos (MMA2), General Aviation Terminal (GAT), Lagos and Abuja local airport terminal — shows few passengers being processed to travel.

In most cases, only arriving passengers are present at these airports, as most airport workers decry low patronage because of rising fares.

“The past two weeks have been like this. Once the first and second flight leaves the airport, passengers become scarce. Most times, we struggle to fill up the aircraft and even when we delay the flight for an hour or more, the passenger number will still be sparse and discouraging,” an airline staff told BusinessDay.

The staff also disclosed that in recent times, airlines have had to help one another airlift passengers going to the same destinations and share proceeds from the flight to avoid rising operational costs.

“Aviation fuel is costly now and airlines sell tickets in naira but pay for spare parts and tickets in scarce dollars. It would be bad economics for an airline to have an aircraft with 150 passenger capacity to carry just 50 passengers on the flight. It will only amount to losses.

“It only makes sense for the airline to partner with another to airlift passengers as long as they go to the same destinations. This will reduce costs and help save money” the staff said.

BusinessDay’s findings show that aviation fuel currently takes about 45 percent of the operating cost; labour takes 17 percent; aircraft rent and ownership takes 8.5 percent; non-aircraft rents and ownership, 7 percent; professional services, 4.5 percent; landing fees, 2 percent; food and beverage, 1.5 percent; maintenance materials, 13 percent, and transport related, 1.5 percent.

It cost about $3,000 to operate a B737 aircraft on a one-hour flight when aviation fuel was less than N100 per litre about five years ago. Similarly, when aviation fuel increased to N200 per litre, airlines operated a B737 aircraft at about $6,000.

BusinessDay’s findings show that with the current exchange rate and increase in aviation fuel, which currently cost about N1,300 per litre, airlines operate a B737 aircraft for over quadruple that amount.

Airlines are also faced with increasing naira to a dollar rate pushing the cost of fares up.

BusinessDay’s findings show that a one-way economy class ticket from Lagos to Abuja which cost N55,000 a few months ago now costs between N100,000 to N150,000 on Air Peace; N90,000 to N160,000 on United Nigerian Airlines; N70,000 to N130,000 on Dana Air and N170,000 to N200,000 on Ibom Air.

A one-way economy class ticket from Lagos to Abuja which cost about N50,000 some months back now costs N105,000 to N160,000 on Air Peace, N95,000 to N120,000 on United Nigeria Airlines, and N175,000 to N200,000 on Ibom Air.

A one-way economy class ticket from Lagos to Port Harcourt which cost about N55,000 some months back now costs N105,000 to N160,000 on Air Peace, N85,000 to N100,000 on United Nigeria Airline, N65,000 to N125,000 on Dana Air, N96,000 to N130,000 on Ibom Air and N86,000 to N170,000 on Arik Air.

Mazi Osita Okonkwo, Chief Operating Officer (COO), of United Nigeria Airlines said “Currently, aviation fuel has increased to N1,300 per litre or even more. Forex is over N1,000 for one dollar. So, if we are leasing aircraft, how do we pay for the aircraft, having paid for spare parts? The minimum cost of airfare should be $100.

“So, I don’t even see how you can fly for less than N150,000 and you will make a profit. Anybody telling you he is making it is not telling you the truth. Once the cash runs out, you will see operators parking their aircraft as some have done already.

“Today, we had other operators saying they wanted to transfer their passengers into our aircraft because it doesn’t make sense to fly 50 passengers in a 150-seat capacity aircraft. People are burning cash,” Okonkwo said.

He called on Festus Keyamo, the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, to intervene.

He said local airlines need cheap loans, forex, and lower country risk as lessors will charge more when operators are from Nigeria, whereas, operators from other countries get cheaper insurance.

Ndukwe Ginika Ogechi, CEO Geena Travels And Tours Ltd also told BusinessDay that the turnout of passengers on local destinations has been scanty lately as a result of the costs of tickets.

“The aircraft on local destinations are barely full these days because people cannot afford the fares, yet these airlines have refused to reduce fares. I’m not even sure they make profit anymore as a result of low patronage,” Ginika said.

MARCH 21, 2024

Air Peace’s maiden flight to London slated for March 30, 2024 is already fully booked by Nigerians who have since sought cheaper tickets.

Nigeria’s largest carrier had pegged its economy class ticket at N1.2 million, thereby slashing fares on the route.

According to the airline, a return Economy Class ticket goes for N1.2 million while a return Business Class ticket sells for N4 million, and Nigerians studying in the UK can now access their special 15 percent rebate on the already reduced Economy Class fares.

Meanwhile, the average cost for a return Economy Class ticket on a foreign airline is about N3 million, while Business Class goes for about N8 million or more.

Foreign airlines have failed to reduce fares despite a warning by the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) that lower ticket inventories (cheaper tickets) be released.

Airfares in the last two years have risen by over 400 percent as a result of accumulating trapped funds of foreign airlines in Nigeria caused by the lingering foreign exchange scarcity in the country.

For two years now, airlines blocked low ticket inventories, leaving high inventories to be sold in naira only while the low ticket inventories on most airlines’ websites can be bought with dollar cards only. This was in a bid to cushion the effect of their trapped funds in Nigeria.

However, the NCAA recently directed airlines to release low ticket inventories, but BusinessDay’s findings show that many of the airlines showed cheaper ticket classes on their websites but these ticket classes were not accessible to Nigerians.

High fares charged by foreign carriers have driven many Nigerians to book Air Peace.

“I am particularly excited that Air Peace is now flying to London because I am a frequent flier on the Lagos-London route. I have two businesses I run in London and some in Nigeria. So I often fly to London from Lagos. Fares have been so high in the past two years and this has since eaten into my business profits. Air Peace is coming at the right time and I am really happy because it will change the narrative of air travel on the Lagos-London route,” Temitayo Lawanson told BusinessDay.

Susan Akporiaye, president of the National Association of Nigeria Travel Agencies, told BusinessDay that Air Peace’s maiden flight to London was filled up within a few days after the airline announced ticket prices, which shows how much Nigerians have waited for cheap tickets.

Akporiaye said after the NCAA warning, foreign airlines managed to release a few low inventories, which are hardly accessible.

She said: “Legacy carriers say they have released low inventories, yet cheap tickets are still not available. The legacy airlines say the low inventory tickets have all been fully booked but I know this may not be true.

“They released the tickets to avoid NCAA sanctions. Flights are still very expensive. Some of the low inventory tickets won’t be available till April or even May. That is why Nigerians are quite excited about Air Peace and travel agents are willing to support Air Peace.”

A one-way Economy Class ticket from Lagos to London on British Airways cost N4.5 million for Premium Economy and N11 million for Business Class.

On Lufthansa, a one-way economy class ticket from Lagos to London cost N1.4 million for Economy Basic and N1.6 million for Economy Basic plus. Both were not accessible at the time of filing this report. Accessible tickets on Lufthansa cost N1.7 million for Economy Flex and N3 million for Premium Economy.

On Virgin Atlantic, the same destination cost N1.3 million for Economy Class, which is no longer available. Accessible tickets on Virgin Atlantic cost between N2 million to N5.6 million. An Upper Class ticket on Virgin Atlantic cost N12.3 million.

Kingsley Nwokeoma, president of the Association of Foreign Airlines and Representatives in Nigeria, told BusinessDay that while foreign airlines agreed to release low ticket inventories, this may take time as it requires planning and some processes.

He said: “Airlines are different with different rules and procedures of doing things. Some of these things take time and procedures. These things go through processes before they are implemented.

“However the reason why tickets are high is because of trapped airline funds. Before trapped funds, airlines had low inventory tickets. I appeal to the government to pay the airlines. Nigeria owes these airlines a lot of money compared to what other countries owe them.”

MARCH 21, 2024

Against claims by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that it has successfully settled all outstanding foreign exchange (FX) obligations, foreign airlines says the status quo remains the same.

Kingsley Nwokeoma, President, Association of Foreign Airlines and Representatives in Nigeria, (AFARN) told BusinessDay that as far as he is concerned, nothing has changed as regards clearing foreign airlines’ trapped funds.

“If they say they have cleared the trapped funds, they should show us figures. They should tell us how much have been cleared. The last I checked, the status quo still remains the same,” Nwokeoma said.

Hakama Sidi Ali, acting director of corporate communications at CBN, on Wednesday disclosed in a statement that the financial regulator recently concluded the payment of $1.5 billion to settle obligations to bank customers, effectively settling the residual balance of the FX backlog.

But Bankole Bernard, chairman of Airlines and Passengers’ Joint Committee (APJC) of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) told BusinessDay that CBN’s claim is true, adding that the airlines’ trapped funds have been cleared.

According to him, the foreign airlines have been offered the option to get their funds from the banks using the rate of the I & E window but have refused because the current I &E window rate is not the same they used to sell tickets.

Bernard said the airlines would be making losses if they collect the money using the I & E window, that is why they stopped selling low inventory tickets and are selling only very high fares in order to recover their monies that have been lost as result of the current exchange rate.

When asked why Emirates is yet to resume flight operations in Nigeria, he said “Emirates cannot resume flight operations because of the diplomatic row they have with Nigeria. The rich and powerful still find their way to Dubai.

“The crimes Nigerians are committing in Dubai has made them refuse Nigerians from coming to Dubai. These crimes affect tourism. They do not want their country to be perceived as unsafe. Emirates still has their office in Nigeria and they have staff they are paying salaries,” he said.

Last year, International Air Transport Association (IATA) disclosed that Nigeria owes $812.2 million out of $2.27 billion trapped funds, making it the country with the highest trapped funds globally.

The top five countries that account for 68.0 percent of blocked funds include Nigeria ($812.2 million), Bangladesh ($214.1 million), Algeria ($196.3 million), Pakistan ($188.2 million) and Lebanon ($141.2 million).